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Correlation Analysis

Costco Wholesale Corp vs Southwest Airlines Co.

COST vs LUV

-0.455

Moderate inverse

When one moves up, the other tends to move down.

COST logo

Costco Wholesale Corp

COST

Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.

Market cap 451.9B

LUV logo

Southwest Airlines Co.

LUV

Southwest Airlines is the largest domestic air carrier in the United States by passengers boarded. Southwest operates nearly 800 aircraft in an all-Boeing 737 fleet. Despite offering some longer routes and a few perks for business travelers, the airline predominantly specializes in short-haul, leisure flights operated with a simple cabin configuration in a point-to-point network. In early 2026, Southwest modified its cabins to offer some rows with extra legroom, its ticketing process and merchandising to offer assigned seats, and more fare categories to include a basic economy class that appears for the first time in travel aggregators' search results and more directly competes with other airlines' offerings.

Market cap 18.7B · 77,397 employees

Apr 9, 2021 — Apr 7, 2026Daily1,254 data pointsStockStockConsumer

Time Series

Relative Performance

Green: COSTGray: LUV36 of 1,254 points (sampled)

Who Moves First

LUV leads COST by 6 days

LUV tends to move before COST.

After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.462 (they moved in opposite directions).

Do They Crash Together?

Correlation by Market Regime

How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.

Both Rising

+0.810

9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose

Both Falling

-0.107

6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell

Diverging

-0.502

20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart

R-Squared

20.7%

Share of variance in one series explained by the other.

Trend Agreement

55.4%

How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.

Overlap Quality

1,254

Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.

Significance

p < 0.001

95% CI: [-0.498, -0.410]

Scatter

XY Regression

3064006008001,0001,13419.2203040506066.7Costco Wholesale CorpSouthwest Airlines Co.Data pointsFit (r = -0.455)

Pipeline

Data quality details

Pipeline Summary

1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.

Raw input

1,254

1,254

Normalized

1,254

1,254

Prepared

1,254

1,254

Aligned

1,254

1,254

Invalid removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Duplicates removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Alignment drops

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Series A

COST logo

Costco Wholesale Corp

COST

Market cap 451.9B

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Series B

LUV logo

Southwest Airlines Co.

LUV

Market cap 18.7B · 77,397 employees

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Sign agreement

100.0%

How often both values share the same sign.

Zero crossings

3

Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.

Slope

-0.0189

Linear regression slope.

Intercept

49.5479

Linear regression intercept.

Related Extremes

Highest and Lowest Correlated

Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-cost-vs-stock-luv-daily