Correlation Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp vs Corpay, Inc.
COST vs CPAY
+0.518
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Costco Wholesale Corp
↗COST
Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.
Market cap 451.9B
Corpay, Inc.
↗CPAY
Corpay Inc is a corporate payments company that helps businesses and consumers manage and pay their expenses. The company offers payment and spend management solutions, including accounts payable automation, cross-border payments, commercial card programs, vehicle payment solutions, and lodging payment services. Its reportable segments are: Corporate Payments, Vehicle Payments, Lodging Payments and Other. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from the Vehicle Payments segment, which helps customers to pay for vehicle related expenses. Geographically, it derives the maximum revenue from the United States and the rest from Brazil, the United Kingdom and other countries.
Market cap 20.3B · 11,800 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
CPAY leads COST by 6 days
CPAY tends to move before COST.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.542 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.053
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.047
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.768
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
26.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
56.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
510
Robust shared window — 510 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.452, 0.579]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
510 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
510
Normalized
1,254
510
Prepared
1,254
510
Aligned
510
510
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
744
A: 744 / B: 0
Series A
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST
Market cap 451.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Corpay, Inc.
CPAY
Market cap 20.3B · 11,800 employees
Stock · 510 raw → 510 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2051
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
128.5523
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 9 hours ago · ID: stock-cost-vs-stock-cpay-daily