Correlation Analysis
Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock vs Circle Internet Group, Inc.
COIN vs CRCL
+0.779
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
↗COIN
Founded in 2012, Coinbase is the leading cryptocurrency exchange platform in the United States. The company intends to be the safe and regulation-compliant point of entry for retail investors and institutions into the cryptocurrency economy. Users can establish an account directly with the firm, instead of using an intermediary, and many choose to allow Coinbase to act as a custodian for their cryptocurrency, giving the company breadth beyond that of a traditional financial exchange. While the company still generates the majority of its revenue from transaction fees charged to its retail customers, Coinbase uses internal investment and acquisitions to expand into adjacent businesses, such as prime brokerage and data analytics.
Market cap 46.2B · 4,951 employees
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
↗CRCL
Circle Internet Group Inc is a financial technology firm engaged in digital currencies and public blockchains for payments, commerce, and financial applications. The company's platform is a full-stack, internet financial platform business, organized around three pillars: Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure, Circle Digital Assets and Services, and Circle Applications.
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
AI Analysis
The strong correlation between Coinbase's stock and Circle's stock over the observed period indicates that their prices tend to move together, suggesting that factors affecting the cryptocurrency market impact both companies similarly. With a significant percentage of days showing aligned trends, investors might consider these stocks as closely linked within the same market dynamics. However, it's essential to recognize that while this correlation is statistically robust, it does not imply causation, and external market conditions could still lead to divergent performance in the future.
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
COIN and CRCL tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.779 (they moved in the same direction).
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.402
72 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.423
85 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.782
52 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
60.7%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
75.5%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
210
Usable shared window — 210 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.719, 0.827]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
210 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,251
210
Normalized
1,251
210
Prepared
1,251
210
Aligned
210
210
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,041
A: 1041 / B: 0
Series A
Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
COIN
Market cap 46.2B · 4,951 employees
Stock · 1,251 raw → 1,251 prepared
Series B
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
CRCL
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
Stock · 210 raw → 210 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4965
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-18.8280
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Highest
+0.779
NetFlix Inc
NFLX · 1,251 data points
Lowest
-0.142
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM · 1,251 data points
CRCL
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
Highest
+0.767
NetFlix Inc
NFLX · 210 data points
Lowest
-0.761
Eli Lilly & Co.
LLY · 210 data points
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-coin-vs-stock-crcl-daily