Correlation Analysis
Carrier Global Corporation vs Walmart Inc. Common Stock
CARR vs WMT
+0.659
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Carrier Global Corporation
↗CARR
Carrier Global, spun out of United Technologies in 2020, manufactures and services commercial and residential HVAC systems and transportation refrigeration solutions under its flagship Carrier brand, as well as Bryant, Payne, Heil, and others across various price points. In 2024, Carrier acquired Viessmann Climate Solutions to expand its footprint in Europe with heat pumps, boilers, and solar PV equipment. Proceeds from the sale of Carrier's fire and security (Honeywell) and commercial refrigeration (Haier) businesses reduced debt and focused the company on global HVAC and refrigeration solutions. Carrier generates 75% of sales from equipment and 25% from parts and services. The company derives 50% of revenue from the US, 30% from Europe, and 20% from the Asia-Pacific region.
Market cap 46.4B · 47,000 employees
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
↗WMT
Since its founding in 1962, Walmart has become the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally (including 4,600 namesake locations on its home turf and another 600 Sam's Club outlets) and growing its e-commerce presence, attracting 270 million customers weekly. In aggregate, the firm posted more than $680 billion in fiscal 2025 sales. Its core operations span three reporting segments: Walmart US (68% of fiscal 2025 sales), Walmart International (18%), and Sam's Club (14%). Within the US, nearly 60% of its $465 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, with another quarter from general merchandise. Internationally, Walmart's operations are concentrated in Mexico, though it also has budding exposure to India.
Market cap 1T
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
CARR leads WMT by 6 days
CARR tends to move before WMT.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.668 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.627
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.017
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.591
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
43.4%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
56.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.626, 0.689]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Carrier Global Corporation
CARR
Market cap 46.4B · 47,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
Market cap 1T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.4556
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-13.0986
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
Highest
+0.803
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.125
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 data points
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-carr-vs-stock-wmt-daily