Correlation Analysis
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock vs Walmart Inc. Common Stock
AFRM vs WMT
+0.272
Light positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock
↗AFRM
Founded in 2012, Affirm is a market leader in the buy-now, pay-later space with around $36 billion in transaction volume in fiscal 2025. Affirm offers both zero-interest financing, which is merchant subsidized, and interest-bearing loans, which function as personal loans that are approved on a per-transaction basis. Over 70% of Affirm's transaction volume comes from its interest-bearing loans, which also comprise the majority of its revenue. Affirm operates in the United States, which accounted for more than 95% of its revenue in 2025, but the firm has also expanded to Canada and the United Kingdom.
Market cap 16.1B · 2,206 employees
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
↗WMT
Since its founding in 1962, Walmart has become the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally (including 4,600 namesake locations on its home turf and another 600 Sam's Club outlets) and growing its e-commerce presence, attracting 270 million customers weekly. In aggregate, the firm posted more than $680 billion in fiscal 2025 sales. Its core operations span three reporting segments: Walmart US (68% of fiscal 2025 sales), Walmart International (18%), and Sam's Club (14%). Within the US, nearly 60% of its $465 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, with another quarter from general merchandise. Internationally, Walmart's operations are concentrated in Mexico, though it also has budding exposure to India.
Market cap 1T
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
WMT leads AFRM by 6 days
WMT tends to move before AFRM.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.275 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.100
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.136
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.704
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
7.4%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
54.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.220, 0.322]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock
AFRM
Market cap 16.1B · 2,206 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
Market cap 1T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2198
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
56.2768
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
AFRM
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Highest
+0.560
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
TSLA · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.411
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM · 1,254 data points
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-afrm-vs-stock-wmt-daily