Correlation Analysis
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock vs Exxon Mobil Corporation
AFRM vs XOM
-0.411
Moderate inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock
↗AFRM
Founded in 2012, Affirm is a market leader in the buy-now, pay-later space with around $36 billion in transaction volume in fiscal 2025. Affirm offers both zero-interest financing, which is merchant subsidized, and interest-bearing loans, which function as personal loans that are approved on a per-transaction basis. Over 70% of Affirm's transaction volume comes from its interest-bearing loans, which also comprise the majority of its revenue. Affirm operates in the United States, which accounted for more than 95% of its revenue in 2025, but the firm has also expanded to Canada and the United Kingdom.
Market cap 16.1B · 2,206 employees
Exxon Mobil Corporation
↗XOM
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2024, reserves were 19.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 680.7B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
XOM leads AFRM by 6 days
XOM tends to move before AFRM.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.423 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.290
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.000
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.613
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
16.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
54.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.456, -0.364]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock
AFRM
Market cap 16.1B · 2,206 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 680.7B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3010
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
115.7310
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
AFRM
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Highest
+0.560
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
TSLA · 1,254 data points
Lowest
+0.018
Eli Lilly & Co.
LLY · 1,254 data points
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-afrm-vs-stock-xom-daily