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Correlation Analysis

Automatic Data Processing vs Costco Wholesale Corp

ADP vs COST

+0.797

Strong positive

When one moves up, the other tends to follow.

ADP logo

Automatic Data Processing

ADP

ADP is a global technology company providing cloud-based human capital management solutions, enabling clients to better implement payroll, talent, time, tax, and benefits administration. Additionally, ADP provides human resources outsourcing solutions that permit customers to offload some of their traditional HR tasks. The company operates through two segments: employer services and professional employer organization services. Employer services consist of the company's HCM products as well as a la carte HRO solutions. PEO services contain ADP's comprehensive HRO solution, where it acts as a co-employer with its customer. As of fiscal 2025, ADP serves over 1.1 million clients and pays over 42 million workers across 140 countries.

Market cap 82.3B · 67,000 employees

COST logo

Costco Wholesale Corp

COST

Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.

Market cap 451.9B

Apr 9, 2021 — Apr 7, 2026Daily1,254 data pointsStockStockConsumer

Time Series

Relative Performance

Green: ADPGray: COST36 of 1,254 points (sampled)

Who Moves First

ADP leads COST by 6 days

ADP tends to move before COST.

After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.803 (they moved in the same direction).

Do They Crash Together?

Correlation by Market Regime

How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.

Both Rising

+0.340

15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose

Both Falling

+0.122

10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell

Diverging

-0.741

10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart

R-Squared

63.5%

Share of variance in one series explained by the other.

Trend Agreement

66.3%

How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.

Overlap Quality

1,254

Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.

Significance

p < 0.001

95% CI: [0.776, 0.816]

Scatter

XY Regression

178.7180200220240260280300320334.93064006008001,0001,134Automatic Data ProcessingCostco Wholesale CorpData pointsFit (r = 0.797)

Pipeline

Data quality details

Pipeline Summary

1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.

Raw input

1,254

1,254

Normalized

1,254

1,254

Prepared

1,254

1,254

Aligned

1,254

1,254

Invalid removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Duplicates removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Alignment drops

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Series A

ADP logo

Automatic Data Processing

ADP

Market cap 82.3B · 67,000 employees

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Series B

COST logo

Costco Wholesale Corp

COST

Market cap 451.9B

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Sign agreement

100.0%

How often both values share the same sign.

Zero crossings

5

Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.

Slope

4.9723

Linear regression slope.

Intercept

-539.2808

Linear regression intercept.

Related Extremes

Highest and Lowest Correlated

Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-adp-vs-stock-cost-daily