Correlation Analysis
Apple Inc. vs PCE
AAPL vs PCE
+0.877
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Apple Inc.
↗AAPL
Apple is among the largest companies in the world, with a broad portfolio of hardware and software products targeted at consumers and businesses. Apple's iPhone makes up a majority of the firm sales, and Apple's other products like Mac, iPad, and Watch are designed around the iPhone as the focal point of an expansive software ecosystem. Apple has progressively worked to add new applications, like streaming video, subscription bundles, and augmented reality. The firm designs its own software and semiconductors while working with subcontractors like Foxconn and TSMC to build its products and chips. Slightly less than half of Apple's sales come directly through its flagship stores, with a majority of sales coming indirectly through partnerships and distribution.
Market cap 3.8T
PCE
PCE
Who Moves First
in sync
AAPL and PCE tend to move at the same time.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.877 (13 shifts scanned)
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.040
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+0.166
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
76.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
56.1%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
58
Thin shared window — 58 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.800, 0.926]
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
58 paired observations survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
805
Normalized
1,254
805
Prepared
61
805
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
750
A: 3 / B: 747
Series A
Apple Inc.
AAPL
Market cap 3.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PCE
FRED · 805 raw → 805 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
36.3886
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
12174.6973
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-aapl-vs-fred-pce-monthly-20260408-oe7qen