Correlation Analysis
Fed Funds Rate vs Producer Price Index by Industry: Gold Ore and Silver Ore Mining: Gold Ores
FEDFUNDS vs PCU2122212122210
-0.699
Strong inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
Producer Price Index by Industry: Gold Ore and Silver Ore Mining: Gold Ores
PCU2122212122210
AI Analysis
The strong negative correlation between the federal funds rate (Series A) and the producer price index for non-durable goods (Series B) suggests that as the Fed raises interest rates, prices for these goods tend to decrease, reflecting tighter monetary conditions. This relationship is statistically significant and consistent, with nearly half of the observed periods moving in the same direction, indicating that investors should pay attention to interest rate changes as they may influence pricing dynamics in this sector. However, it's important to consider that while the correlation is robust, it does not imply causation, and other external factors could also be influencing these trends.
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
Fed Funds Rate and Producer Price Index by Industry: Gold Ore and Silver Ore Mining: Gold Ores tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.699 (they moved in opposite directions).
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.151
55 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.094
48 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.293
146 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
48.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
47.5%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
391
Robust shared window — 391 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.746, -0.644]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
391 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
861
391
Normalized
861
391
Prepared
861
391
Aligned
391
391
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
470
A: 470 / B: 0
Series A
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 861 raw → 861 prepared
Series B
PCU2122212122210
FRED · 391 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-25.2274
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
267.0200
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
FEDFUNDS
Fed Funds Rate
Highest
+0.928
Interest Rates: Immediate Rates (< 24 Hours): Central Bank Rates:
IRSTCB01CAM156N · 768 data points
Lowest
+0.343
Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Korea
IRLTLT01KRM156N · 305 data points
PCU2122212122210
Producer Price Index by Industry: Gold Ore and Silver Ore Mining: Gold Ores
Highest
No additional saved correlations yet.
Lowest
No additional saved correlations yet.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-fedfunds-vs-fred-pcu2122212122210-daily