Correlation Analysis
Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Korea vs Federal Funds Effective Rate
IRLTLT01KRM156N vs FEDFUNDS
+0.343
Light positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The moderate positive correlation between long-term interest rates (Series A) and the federal funds rate (Series B) suggests that changes in the federal funds rate often influence long-term rates, albeit with some lag, as evidenced by the five-period lead. This relationship indicates that when the Federal Reserve adjusts its policy rate, it may take some time for these changes to affect long-term borrowing costs, which can be significant for investors and borrowers. However, given the relatively low R-squared value, it's important to recognize that other factors also impact long-term rates, and this correlation should not be viewed in isolation when making financial decisions.
Timing Offset
y leads x by 5 periods
FEDFUNDS tends to move before IRLTLT01KRM156N.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.620 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
15.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
52.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
305
Robust shared window — 305 usable pairs.
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
305 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
305
861
Normalized
305
861
Prepared
305
861
Aligned
305
305
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
556
A: 0 / B: 556
Series A
IRLTLT01KRM156N
Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Korea
FRED · 305 raw → 305 prepared
Series B
FEDFUNDS
Federal Funds Effective Rate
FRED · 861 raw → 861 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4615
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.1599
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 10 hours ago · ID: fred-irltlt01krm156n-vs-fred-fedfunds-daily-20260406-ynnuon