Correlation Analysis
US CPI vs LRUNTTTTKRM156S
CPIAUCSL vs LRUNTTTTKRM156S
-0.016
Near-zero inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
LRUNTTTTKRM156S
LRUNTTTTKRM156S
AI Analysis
The correlation between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the labor force participation rate shows virtually no relationship, indicating that changes in inflation do not significantly predict shifts in workforce engagement over the analyzed period. With only 44% of periods moving in the same direction, investors should be cautious about assuming that rising prices will lead to increased labor participation or vice versa. Additionally, the timing offset is negligible, suggesting that these two economic indicators are not meaningfully synchronized, which may limit their usefulness in making investment or policy decisions.
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
US CPI and LRUNTTTTKRM156S tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.016 (they moved in opposite directions).
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.113
75 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.291
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.257
162 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
0.0%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
44.1%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
432
Robust shared window — 432 usable pairs.
Significance
n.s.
95% CI: [-0.110, 0.079]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
432 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
949
433
Normalized
949
433
Prepared
949
433
Aligned
432
432
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
518
A: 517 / B: 1
Series A
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 949 raw → 949 prepared
Series B
LRUNTTTTKRM156S
FRED · 433 raw → 433 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.4972
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl-vs-fred-lrunttttkrm156s-daily