Correlation Analysis
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average vs Unemployment Rate
CPIAUCSL vs UNRATE
+0.053
Weak positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
AI Analysis
The correlation between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the unemployment rate shows a very weak relationship, indicating that changes in inflation do not significantly predict shifts in unemployment over the long term. While there is some alignment in trends, the fact that unemployment tends to lead CPI by about six months suggests that inflationary pressures may respond to labor market conditions rather than vice versa. However, investors should exercise caution, as the minimal correlation and low explanatory power imply that relying on CPI to forecast unemployment trends could be misleading.
Timing Offset
y leads x by 6 periods
UNRATE tends to move before CPIAUCSL.
Correlation at each lag offset (periods). Peak marked with dot.
Peak correlation at offset: +0.389 (13 lags scanned)
R-Squared
0.0%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
45.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
937
Deep shared window — 937 usable pairs.
Significance
n.s.
95% CI: [-0.344, 0.313] (approximate)
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
937 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
949
938
Normalized
949
938
Prepared
949
938
Aligned
937
937
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13
A: 12 / B: 1
Series A
CPIAUCSL
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average
FRED · 949 raw → 949 prepared
Series B
UNRATE
Unemployment Rate
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.6141
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 13 hours ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl-vs-fred-unrate-daily-20260406-simf89