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Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Unemployment Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-34%
In sync
of periods
27%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
19
These move in the same direction about 27% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
27%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-71% → +17%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
412
943
Normalized
412
943
Prepared
21
943
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
12%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
17
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-34%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
926
A: 2 / B: 924
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 412 raw → 21 prepared
Series B
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 943 raw → 943 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0772
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-unrate_stock-xyz_monthly_5y