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Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Consumer Sentiment
Correlation
of % moves
+57%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
15
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~33% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
XYZ moves ~3 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch XYZ for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+57%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+6% → +85%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
337
671
Normalized
337
671
Prepared
17
671
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
32.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
15
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -4 to 4 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
-70%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does Block, Inc. (XYZ) today line up with Consumer Sentiment 3 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
-70%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+61%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
658
A: 2 / B: 656
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 337 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3235
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0126
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-umcsent_stock-xyz_monthly_5y