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Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Consumer Sentiment
Correlation
of % moves
+44%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
17
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
XYZ moves ~6 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch XYZ for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
17 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
368
673
Normalized
368
673
Prepared
19
673
Aligned
17
17
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
16
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 months.
Selected shift
+6 months
Correlation at this shift
+71%
+27% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 6 months earlier. Reads: "Does Block, Inc. (XYZ) today line up with Consumer Sentiment 6 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 months
+71%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+61%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
658
A: 2 / B: 656
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 368 raw → 19 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 673 raw → 673 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2519
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0259
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-umcsent_stock-xyz_monthly_5y