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Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Total Consumer Credit
Correlation
of % moves
-45%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
19
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~20% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
XYZ moves ~3 months before Total Consumer Credit
Watch XYZ for an early read on Total Consumer Credit.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-45%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-76% → +2%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
411
1,003
Normalized
411
1,003
Prepared
21
1,003
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
20%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
+53%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Consumer Credit shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does Block, Inc. (XYZ) today line up with Total Consumer Credit 3 months from now?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-45%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
+53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
986
A: 2 / B: 984
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 411 raw → 21 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,003 raw → 1,003 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0110
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0025
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-totalsl_stock-xyz_monthly_5y