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Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Total Consumer Credit
Correlation
of % moves
-49%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
15
These move opposite each other about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~24% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Total Consumer Credit moves ~3 months before XYZ
Watch Total Consumer Credit for an early read on XYZ.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-49%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-81% → +5%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
337
999
Normalized
337
999
Prepared
17
999
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
24.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
15
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -4 to 4 months.
Selected shift
-3 months
Correlation at this shift
+57%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Consumer Credit shifted 3 months later. Reads: "Does Block, Inc. (XYZ) today line up with Total Consumer Credit 3 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-3 months
+57%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+59%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
986
A: 2 / B: 984
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 337 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 999 raw → 999 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0123
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0023
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-totalsl_stock-xyz_monthly_5y