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Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Total Vehicle Sales
Correlation
of % moves
-40%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
17
These move in the same direction about 31% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
XYZ moves ~2 months before Total Vehicle Sales
Watch XYZ for an early read on Total Vehicle Sales.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-75% → +12%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
17 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
350
605
Normalized
350
605
Prepared
18
605
Aligned
17
17
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
16.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
17
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
+54%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Vehicle Sales shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does Block, Inc. (XYZ) today line up with Total Vehicle Sales 2 months from now?"
14 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
+54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-78%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
589
A: 1 / B: 588
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 350 raw → 18 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 605 raw → 605 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1733
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-totalsa_stock-xyz_monthly_5y