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Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Total Vehicle Sales
Correlation
of % moves
-39%
In sync
of periods
33%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
19
These move in the same direction about 33% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
XYZ moves ~2 months before Total Vehicle Sales
Watch XYZ for an early read on Total Vehicle Sales.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-72% → +10%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
409
607
Normalized
409
607
Prepared
21
607
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
15%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
+52%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Vehicle Sales shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does Block, Inc. (XYZ) today line up with Total Vehicle Sales 2 months from now?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
+52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-74%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
590
A: 2 / B: 588
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 409 raw → 21 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 607 raw → 607 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1649
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0017
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-totalsa_stock-xyz_monthly_5y