Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-35%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
16
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-74% → +22%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
16 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
350
797
Normalized
350
797
Prepared
18
797
Aligned
16
16
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
12.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
16
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
14 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
783
A: 2 / B: 781
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 350 raw → 18 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.8160
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.1427
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-xyz_monthly_5y