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Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
+27%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
16
These move in the same direction about 67% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
XYZ moves ~5 months before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch XYZ for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
66.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-28% → +69%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
16 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
350
707
Normalized
350
707
Prepared
18
707
Aligned
16
16
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
16
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -5 to 5 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
-76%
+48% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Block, Inc. (XYZ) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 5 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
-76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-40%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-47%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-94%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
693
A: 2 / B: 691
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 350 raw → 18 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 707 raw → 707 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.9006
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0034
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-xyz_monthly_5y