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Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
+31%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
19
These move in the same direction about 67% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
XYZ moves ~5 months before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch XYZ for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
67%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-18% → +68%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
409
710
Normalized
409
710
Prepared
21
710
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
10%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
-69%
+38% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Block, Inc. (XYZ) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 5 months from now?"
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
-69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
693
A: 2 / B: 691
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 409 raw → 21 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.8170
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0023
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-xyz_monthly_5y