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Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Building Permits
Correlation
of % moves
-43%
In sync
of periods
33%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
16
These move opposite each other about 33% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Building Permits moves ~5 months before XYZ
Watch Building Permits for an early read on XYZ.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-77% → +10%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
16 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
337
796
Normalized
337
796
Prepared
17
796
Aligned
16
16
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
18.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
16
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -5 to 5 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
-49%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Building Permits shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does Block, Inc. (XYZ) today line up with Building Permits 5 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
-49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-64%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
781
A: 1 / B: 780
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 337 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1884
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0045
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-permit_stock-xyz_monthly_5y