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Block, Inc. (XYZ) vs Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
-59%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-02
14
These move opposite each other about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Case-Shiller Home Price Index moves ~3 months before XYZ
Watch Case-Shiller Home Price Index for an early read on XYZ.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-59%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-86% → -5%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
14 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
337
470
Normalized
337
470
Prepared
17
470
Aligned
14
14
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
34.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
14
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
-3 months
Correlation at this shift
+72%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 3 months later. Reads: "Does Block, Inc. (XYZ) today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 3 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-3 months
+72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-85%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
459
A: 3 / B: 456
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 337 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 470 raw → 470 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0181
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_stock-xyz_monthly_5y