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Correlation
of % moves
+51%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
15
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~26% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
US CPI moves ~2 months before XYZ
Watch US CPI for an early read on XYZ.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+51%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-3% → +82%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
337
951
Normalized
337
951
Prepared
17
951
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
25.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
15
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -4 to 4 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
-58%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
US CPI shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does Block, Inc. (XYZ) today line up with US CPI 2 months ago?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
-58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+72%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
938
A: 2 / B: 936
Series A
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
XYZ
Stock · 337 raw → 17 prepared
Series B
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0083
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0031
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_stock-xyz_monthly_5y