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Correlation
of % moves
-69%
In sync
of periods
29%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
22
These move in the same direction about 29% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~48% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-69%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-87% → -37%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
22 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
1,002
Normalized
729
1,002
Prepared
25
1,002
Aligned
22
22
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
48%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
21
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -11 to 11 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-69%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
21 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+80%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-80%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
983
A: 3 / B: 980
Series A
XRP
XRP
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,002 raw → 1,002 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0162
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0015
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-xrp_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y