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XMR vs FRetail SalesMonero (XMR) vs Retail Sales
Correlation
of % moves
-45%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
23
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~20% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Retail Sales moves ~11 months before XMR
Watch Retail Sales for an early read on XMR.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-45%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-73% → -3%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
415
Normalized
729
415
Prepared
25
415
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
20%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
22
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
-51%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Retail Sales shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does Monero (XMR) today line up with Retail Sales 11 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-45%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
-51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
394
A: 2 / B: 392
Series A
Monero (XMR)
XMR
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 415 raw → 415 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0195
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0044
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-xmr_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y