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Monero (XMR) vs Building Permits
Correlation
of % moves
-35%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Building Permits moves ~5 months before XMR
Watch Building Permits for an early read on XMR.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-67% → +7%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
796
Normalized
729
796
Prepared
25
796
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
12.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
-66%
+31% stronger than no-shift baseline
Building Permits shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does Monero (XMR) today line up with Building Permits 5 months ago?"
18 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+22%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
773
A: 1 / B: 772
Series A
Monero (XMR)
XMR
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1097
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0054
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-xmr_fred-permit_monthly_5y