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Monero (XMR) vs Chicago Financial Conditions
Correlation
of % moves
-25%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-34
103
These move in the same direction about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Chicago Financial Conditions moves ~6 weeks before XMR
Watch Chicago Financial Conditions for an early read on XMR.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-43% → -6%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
103 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
729
2,903
Normalized
729
2,903
Prepared
106
2,903
Aligned
103
103
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
102
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-6 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+32%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Chicago Financial Conditions shifted 6 weeks later. Reads: "Does Monero (XMR) today line up with Chicago Financial Conditions 6 weeks ago?"
96 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 weeks
+32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-74%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
63 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,803
A: 3 / B: 2800
Series A
Monero (XMR)
XMR
Crypto · 729 raw → 106 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,903 raw → 2,903 prepared
Sign agreement
0.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0275
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0014
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-xmr_fred-nfci_weekly_5y