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Monero (XMR) vs M2 Money Supply
Correlation
of % moves
-41%
In sync
of periods
73%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
23
These move in the same direction about 73% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
XMR moves ~12 months before M2 Money Supply
Watch XMR for an early read on M2 Money Supply.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
73%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
809
Normalized
729
809
Prepared
25
809
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
17%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
22
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+12 months
Correlation at this shift
+69%
+27% stronger than no-shift baseline
M2 Money Supply shifted 12 months earlier. Reads: "Does Monero (XMR) today line up with M2 Money Supply 12 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 months
+69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-88%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
788
A: 2 / B: 786
Series A
Monero (XMR)
XMR
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0056
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0043
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: crypto-xmr_fred-m2sl_monthly_5y