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Monero (XMR) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-26%
In sync
of periods
9%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
24
These move in the same direction about 9% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Funds Rate moves ~12 months before XMR
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on XMR.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
864
Normalized
729
864
Prepared
25
864
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
7%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
-12 months
Correlation at this shift
-62%
+35% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 12 months later. Reads: "Does Monero (XMR) today line up with Fed Funds Rate 12 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 months
-62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
841
A: 1 / B: 840
Series A
Monero (XMR)
XMR
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0340
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0156
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: crypto-xmr_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y