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Monero (XMR) vs Monetary Base
Correlation
of % moves
-16%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
23
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
XMR moves ~4 months before Monetary Base
Watch XMR for an early read on Monetary Base.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-16%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-55% → +28%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
807
Normalized
729
807
Prepared
25
807
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
2.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
-44%
+28% stronger than no-shift baseline
Monetary Base shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Monero (XMR) today line up with Monetary Base 4 months from now?"
18 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-16%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
786
A: 2 / B: 784
Series A
Monero (XMR)
XMR
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0147
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0016
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-xmr_fred-bogmbase_monthly_5y