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Correlation
of % moves
+88%
In sync
of periods
82%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-08
1,253
These move in the same direction about 82% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~77% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
82%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+88%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+86% → +89%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,253 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
2,512
1,253
Normalized
2,512
1,253
Prepared
2,512
1,253
Aligned
1,253
1,253
Invalid removed
R²(i)
77%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,252
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,252 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+81%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+88%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,259
A: 1259 / B: 0
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Series B
XLY
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.2393
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-sp500_stock-xly_daily_5y