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Aaa Corporate Bond Yield vs Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU)
Correlation
of % moves
-51%
In sync
of periods
29%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
60
These move in the same direction about 29% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~26% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-51%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-68% → -29%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,292
1,253
Normalized
1,292
1,253
Prepared
1,292
61
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
R²(i)
26%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-51%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-15%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-74%
42 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,233
A: 1232 / B: 1
Series A
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Series B
XLU
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4190
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0107
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-aaa_stock-xlu_monthly_5y