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Stellar (XLM) vs Fed Balance Sheet
Correlation
of % moves
-24%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
104
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-41% → -5%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
104 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
729
1,223
Normalized
729
1,223
Prepared
105
1,223
Aligned
104
104
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
104
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-24%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
103 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-24%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-23%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-11%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
43 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,120
A: 1 / B: 1119
Series A
Stellar (XLM)
XLM
Crypto · 729 raw → 105 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,223 raw → 1,223 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0046
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0008
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-xlm_fred-walcl_weekly_5y