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Stellar (XLM) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-2%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
23
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes barely line up — almost no shared pattern.
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~4 months before XLM
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on XLM.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-2%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-44% → +42%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
729
796
Normalized
729
796
Prepared
25
796
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
0.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
+63%
+61% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does Stellar (XLM) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 4 months ago?"
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-2%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+29%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
775
A: 2 / B: 773
Series A
Stellar (XLM)
XLM
Crypto · 729 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0142
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0791
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-xlm_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y