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Stellar (XLM) vs Continued Jobless Claims
Correlation
of % moves
-9%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-19
102
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~7 weeks before XLM
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on XLM.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-9%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-28% → +11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
102 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
729
3,097
Normalized
729
3,097
Prepared
105
3,097
Aligned
102
102
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
102
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-7 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+15%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 7 weeks later. Reads: "Does Stellar (XLM) today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 7 weeks ago?"
94 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-9%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-7 weeks
+15%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+32%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
56 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,998
A: 3 / B: 2995
Series A
Stellar (XLM)
XLM
Crypto · 729 raw → 105 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,097 raw → 3,097 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0090
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-xlm_fred-ccsa_weekly_5y