Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of % moves
-66%
In sync
of periods
29%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-31
1,250
These move in the same direction about 29% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~44% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-66%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-69% → -63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,250 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
9,263
1,254
Normalized
9,263
1,254
Prepared
9,263
1,254
Aligned
1,250
1,250
Invalid removed
R²(i)
44%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,249
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-66%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,249 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-44%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-78%
85 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,017
A: 8013 / B: 4
Series A
VIX
VIXCLS
FRED · 9,263 raw → 9,263 prepared
Series B
XLI
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0966
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-vixcls-vs-stock-xli-daily