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Chicago Financial Conditions vs Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)
Correlation
of % moves
-44%
In sync
of periods
34%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-34
259
These move in the same direction about 34% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
34%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-53% → -33%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
259 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,903
1,254
Normalized
2,903
1,254
Prepared
2,903
261
Aligned
259
259
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
258
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-44%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
258 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+22%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-33%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
162 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,646
A: 2644 / B: 2
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,903 raw → 2,903 prepared
Series B
XLF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 261 prepared
Sign agreement
0.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.8081
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0019
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-nfci_stock-xlf_weekly_5y