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10Y Breakeven Inflation vs Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)
Correlation
of % moves
+35%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-08
1,243
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+30% → +39%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,243 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,925
1,254
Normalized
5,925
1,254
Prepared
5,925
1,254
Aligned
1,243
1,243
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,242
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,242 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+48%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,693
A: 4682 / B: 11
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,925 raw → 5,925 prepared
Series B
XLE
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
59
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4228
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0008
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-t10yie-vs-stock-xle-daily