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WTI Crude Oil vs Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)
Correlation
of % moves
+60%
In sync
of periods
72%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-25
1,239
These move in the same direction about 72% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
72%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+60%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+56% → +63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,239 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
10,231
1,254
Normalized
10,231
1,254
Prepared
10,231
1,254
Aligned
1,239
1,239
Invalid removed
R²(i)
36%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,238
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,238 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+54%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+48%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-33%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
9,007
A: 8992 / B: 15
Series A
WTI Crude Oil
DCOILWTICO
FRED · 10,231 raw → 10,231 prepared
Series B
XLE
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
57
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3773
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dcoilwtico-vs-stock-xle-daily