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W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) vs Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Correlation
of % moves
-39%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
18
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
WRB moves ~7 months before Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Watch WRB for an early read on Debt-to-GDP Ratio.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-73% → +11%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
240
Normalized
1,254
240
Prepared
61
240
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
15.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
+65%
+26% stronger than no-shift baseline
Debt-to-GDP Ratio shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) today line up with Debt-to-GDP Ratio 7 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
265
A: 43 / B: 222
Series A
W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)
WRB
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0519
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0044
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gfdegdq188s_stock-wrb_monthly_5y