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Walmart Inc. Common Stock (WMT) vs Consumer Sentiment
Correlation
of % moves
+28%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
59
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
WMT moves ~18 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch WMT for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
673
Normalized
1,254
673
Prepared
61
673
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
8%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-34%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Walmart Inc. Common Stock (WMT) today line up with Consumer Sentiment 18 months from now?"
40 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-26%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+73%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
616
A: 2 / B: 614
Series A
Walmart Inc. Common Stock (WMT)
WMT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 673 raw → 673 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4095
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0173
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-umcsent_stock-wmt_monthly_5y