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Walmart Inc. Common Stock (WMT) vs Total Consumer Credit
Correlation
of % moves
-36%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
58
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-57% → -11%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,002
Normalized
1,254
1,002
Prepared
61
1,002
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-36%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-34%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-74%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
947
A: 3 / B: 944
Series A
Walmart Inc. Common Stock (WMT)
WMT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,002 raw → 1,002 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0326
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0031
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-totalsl_stock-wmt_monthly_5y