SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move together about 50% of the time
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-78%) is 2.6σ from the long-run average of +63% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
VTI moves ~12 weeks before M2
Watch VTI for an early read on M2.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+5%) and fall (+18%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+73%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
M2 shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF today line up with M2 12 weeks from now?"
246 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
+73%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+63%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+55% → +70%
Likely range
R²
40.0%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
49.8%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
258
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
258 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
2,362
Normalized
1,255
2,362
Prepared
261
2,362
Aligned
258
258
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
82 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+18%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,107
A: 3 / B: 2104
Series A
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
VTI
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
WM2NS
FRED · 2,362 raw → 2,362 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
7.9854
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
19392.6619
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-wm2ns_stock-vti_5y