SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move together about 44% of the time
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (-58%) is 2.1σ from the long-run average of +43% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+14%) and fall (+9%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,245 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+43%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+39% → +48%
Likely range
R²
18.8%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
44.2%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,245
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,245 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
5,836
Normalized
1,255
5,836
Prepared
1,255
5,836
Aligned
1,245
1,245
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+14%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
160 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,601
A: 10 / B: 4591
Series A
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
VTI
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
DFII10
FRED · 5,836 raw → 5,836 prepared
Sign agreement
80.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0104
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.4034
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-dfii10_stock-vti_5y