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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) vs Total Consumer Credit
Correlation
of % moves
+29%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
58
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Total Consumer Credit moves ~8 months before VRTX
Watch Total Consumer Credit for an early read on VRTX.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
65%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+3% → +51%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
1,002
Normalized
1,253
1,002
Prepared
61
1,002
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-8 months
Correlation at this shift
+48%
+19% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Consumer Credit shifted 8 months later. Reads: "Does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) today line up with Total Consumer Credit 8 months ago?"
49 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-8 months
+48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-8%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
947
A: 3 / B: 944
Series A
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)
VRTX
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,002 raw → 1,002 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0241
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0023
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-totalsl_stock-vrtx_monthly_5y