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Correlation
of % moves
+42%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move in the same direction about 67% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
VLO moves ~5 months before US GDP
Watch VLO for an early read on US GDP.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
66.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+42%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-6% → +74%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
317
Normalized
1,254
317
Prepared
61
317
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
17.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
+63%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
US GDP shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) today line up with US GDP 5 months from now?"
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
340
A: 42 / B: 298
Series A
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
VLO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
US GDP
GDP
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0200
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0147
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gdp_stock-vlo_monthly_5y