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Venture Global, Inc. (VG) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-43%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
30
These move opposite each other about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~18% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
VG moves ~4 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch VG for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-69% → -7%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
30 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
624
796
Normalized
624
796
Prepared
32
796
Aligned
30
30
Invalid removed
R²(i)
18.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
30
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
+70%
+27% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Venture Global, Inc. (VG) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 4 months from now?"
25 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
+70%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-19%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
768
A: 2 / B: 766
Series A
Venture Global, Inc. (VG)
VG
Stock · 624 raw → 32 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
51.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5057
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0370
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-vg_monthly_5y