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Velo3D, Inc. Common stock (VELO) vs Bank Reserves
Correlation
of % moves
+24%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
28
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Bank Reserves moves ~5 months before VELO
Watch Bank Reserves for an early read on VELO.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-16% → +57%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
28 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
588
810
Normalized
588
810
Prepared
30
810
Aligned
28
28
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
26
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
+46%
+22% stronger than no-shift baseline
Bank Reserves shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does Velo3D, Inc. Common stock (VELO) today line up with Bank Reserves 5 months ago?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
+46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-71%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
784
A: 2 / B: 782
Series A
Velo3D, Inc. Common stock (VELO)
VELO
Stock · 588 raw → 30 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 810 raw → 810 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0345
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0166
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-totresns_stock-velo_monthly_5y