Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
VISA Inc. (V) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
-29%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities moves ~9 months before V
Watch Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities for an early read on V.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-51% → -3%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
707
Normalized
1,255
707
Prepared
61
707
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
-36%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does VISA Inc. (V) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 9 months ago?"
49 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
650
A: 2 / B: 648
Series A
VISA Inc. (V)
V
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 707 raw → 707 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-4.8132
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0372
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-v_monthly_5y