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VISA Inc. (V) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
-29%
In sync
of periods
33%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
59
These move in the same direction about 33% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
V moves ~15 months before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch V for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
708
Normalized
1,254
708
Prepared
61
708
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
9%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
-36%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does VISA Inc. (V) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 15 months from now?"
43 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+37%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
651
A: 2 / B: 649
Series A
VISA Inc. (V)
V
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 708 raw → 708 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-6.7588
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0561
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-v_monthly_5y