Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX) vs USD/BRL Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+21%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
1,028
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+15% → +27%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,028 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,041
7,868
Normalized
1,041
7,868
Prepared
1,041
7,868
Aligned
1,028
1,028
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,028
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+21%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,027 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+51%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+43%
91 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-24%
90 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6,853
A: 13 / B: 6840
Series A
2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX)
UVIX
Stock · 1,041 raw → 1,041 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 7,868 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0208
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexbzus_stock-uvix_daily_5y