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United Therapeutics Corp (UTHR) vs Core PCE Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
-20%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
59
These move opposite each other about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Core PCE Price Index moves ~15 months before UTHR
Watch Core PCE Price Index for an early read on UTHR.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-43% → +6%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,256
807
Normalized
1,256
807
Prepared
61
807
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
3.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
-30%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Core PCE Price Index shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does United Therapeutics Corp (UTHR) today line up with Core PCE Price Index 15 months ago?"
43 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
-30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+9%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
750
A: 2 / B: 748
Series A
United Therapeutics Corp (UTHR)
UTHR
Stock · 1,256 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0036
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0031
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-pcepilfe_stock-uthr_monthly_5y