Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate vs United States Oil Fund (USO)
Correlation
of % moves
+98%
In sync
of periods
95%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
60
These move in the same direction about 95% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~96% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
95%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+98%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+96% → +99%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
968
1,254
Normalized
968
1,254
Prepared
968
61
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
R²(i)
96%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+98%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+98%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+98%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+85%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+87%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
909
A: 908 / B: 1
Series A
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate
WTISPLC
FRED · 968 raw → 968 prepared
Series B
USO
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.9116
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0130
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-wtisplc_stock-uso_monthly_5y